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Books on how to gamble successfully often
portray games of skill as games in which the
player has a chance of winning in the long run
(e.g., Warren, 1996; Patterson, 1990). However,
the mixed skills of gamblers playing these games
affect the outcome for every player. Against
novices the first author (Nigel), can play a
successful game of poker, but against
experienced players, he most often loses. The
second author (Barry) fairs somewhat better
against good players. The goal of this paper is
to measure how skilled players affect the
success of less skilled players, so that the
dynamics of a game of skill can be understood.
Method
The goal of this paper is difficult since it
often takes thousands of games to accurately
measure skill in gambling. Furthermore, tracking
enough gamblers for a sufficient amount of time
is time consuming and probably not possible
(casinos don't like people researching on their
property). Consequently, this paper relies upon
simulations.
Two games are compared: roulette (see Wong &
Spector, 1996) and Hold'em poker (see Warren,
1996). One hundred thousand simulations on both
poker and roulette were conducted. Conducting
these simulations at exactly the same skill
level is not particularly realistic because
players do improve (and sometimes get worse).
However, applied to the current moment in time,
these simulations allow us to get an accurate
estimate of a player's level of skill and their
expected financial return.
Roulette is a game in which a little ball is
thrown around the edge of a spinning wheel. A
player places a bet on one of the 37 (or 38)
numbered slots that they think the ball will
land on. There are many betting options
available.
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